I guess you are right. The Netherlands' performance haven't decreased a bit from the last world-cup unlike Spain which is heartening to see and certainly makes them one of the favorites to do what they fell short of last time.
Firstly I had a thought that Spain might defend World Cup just like they did Euro in 2012. But after their shocking exit in Group stages, it is very difficult to predict what can happen next. Well it followed that England and Italy also followed them very early which made this world cup a real shocker for followers. I really would agree with your opinion saying that Argentina or Germany might win, but there are still some big names left out such as the Dutch, French, Brazil, Belgium.
I would go with Netherlands or Germany for now and hope that the best team wins.